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Oare la cât va creşte numerarul după ultimele contraperformanțe guvernamentale?

Merită să îmi pun din nou întrebarea la cât va creşte debancarizarea - numerarul în afara sistemului bancar -  după ultimele erori de management guvernamental. Asta cu menţiunea că strategul guvernamental s-a gândit - fără să-şi asume răspunderea - că dacă se majorează preţurile cu ajutorul cartelurilor de la alimente şi energie, vegheate de autoritatea de resort, în vistieria statului o să intre mai multe impozite şi nu că populaţia supraîndatorată va fugi din cale scumpirilor în economia subterană.

Comenteaza

În fine, la sfârşit de martie, numerarul a depăşit nivelul record de 18% din masa monetară (M3), ceea ce vădeşte că, după ultimele stângăcii ale executivului, economia informală se plasează la cote maxime, în condițiile în care acolo se lucrează doar cu bani cash.

Evoluţia a fost însoțită de majorarea creditelor în lei contractate de gospodării, fiindcă, pe fondul scumpirilor, cei care mai aveau un nivel de îndatorare ce încă le permitea şi-au mărit puterea de cheltuire în paralel cu reducerea celei de cumpărare.

Iar în contextul în care din nou retail-ul e motorul creşterii creditului şi nu corporate-ul, se vede că e justificată poziţia băncii centrale de a nu majora dobânzile în pas cu inflaţia.

Probabil că după ce se va estompa efectul de bază ce a contribuit la puseul inflaţionist, o soluţie ar fi deprecierea leului, care să acţioneze în sensul dezgheţării secvenţei economice şi să permită sporuri de productivitate companiilor, nu să le îngreuneze business-ul pe seama măririi costurilor cu împrumuturile.

Ceea ce se observă mai departe la  nivel de credit e că se măreşte componenta în lei, continuă procesul de conversie a finanţărilor din valută în monedă naţională, în vederea echilibrării pe relaţia sursă-destinaţie, pasive-active.

Din păcate, la sfârşitul acestui proces firesc - când creditul neguvernamental va fi doar în lei -  se va observa că vine în contradicţie cu trecerea la euro.

De asemenea, nici secvenţa de a forţa preţurile în vederea obţinerii de venituri la buget, cu rezultatele sale, nu ajută convergenţa reală necesară adoptării monedei unice.

Şi în situaţia în care deficitul de cont curent e suma deficitului guvernamental (bugetar) şi a celui neguvernamental se vede că cea mai mare parte a soldului extern a fost produsă de cheltuielile statului din zona salarială, în vreme ce în sectorul privat nu s-a produs mărirea remuneraţiilor. Iată încă un element ce acţionează invers faţă de obiectivul de adoptare a euro, pentru că atunci când se măreşte deficitul ca urmare a influenţei din zona neproductivă a economiei, lipsesc sporturile de productivitate necesare unei creşteri sustenabile a veniturilor, care să  se coreleze cu accentuarea convergenţei reale a economiei noastre cu cea a zonei euro.  

Probabil că datele din aprilie vor releva că numerarul în circulaţie şi ponderea lui în M3 vor fi şi mai mari, ceea ce evidențiază că majorarea dobânzii cheie şi sterilizarea masei bănești nu pot opri erorile manageriale ale guvernului, materializate în creşterea cash-ului. 

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