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Politica monetară nu poate albi iniţiativele păguboase ale politicului

Relaxarea cantitativă făcută de principalele bănci centrale ale lumii a eşuat, dar nimeni nu-şi asumă eşecul monetarismului. Banii băltesc în sistemele financiare, însă nu provoacă inflaţie, fiindcă nu trec prin economia reală, ceea ce contrazice postulatul lui Milton Friedman potrivit căruia inflaţia este întotdeauna şi pretutindeni un fenomen monetar.

Comenteaza

Acum mai bine de zece ani am scris un articol în care precizam că inflaţia e un fenomen monetar - o masă bănească în exces - numai ca efect şi mod de calcul. Cauza e deficitul de minute lucrate de angajaţi, cel de productivitate al utilajelor ori lipsa capacităţii manageriale a antreprenorilor şi guvernanţilor. Acestea nu pot fi aduse uşor la un numitor comun şi se recurge la instrumentul cu cel mai mare grad de standardizare: banii. Deci se poate pune semnul egal între inflaţie şi lipsa de eficienţă întotdeauna, nu doar uneori. Inflaţia e un fenomen monetar doar ca exprimare, nu în esenţa lui, destinat compensării pierderilor de productivitate.

Ca să rezum e simplist să pretinzi că dacă măreşti dobânzile sau reprimi cererea agregată, după cum susţine monetarismul, vei reuşi să soluţionezi chestiunea inflaţiei. La noi, de pildă, ani în şir fiscalitatea a crescut cu procente importante. Ce relevanţă poate avea jumătate de procent de dobândă de politică monetară, pe lângă cât de mare e influenţa impozitelor?

Reiau întreaga discuție: inflația este o măsură a lipsei de eficiență în alocarea resurselor materiale, de muncă sau manageriale. Ea se exprimă, bineînțeles, “standardizat”, prin intermediul banilor, dar ei sunt puși în sistem pentru ca acesta să nu se blocheze și nu reușesc să umble la cauză, care-i de cele mai multe ori structurală.

Iată că politica monetară nu are, de fapt, un rol determinant, ci politicile structurale și fiscale, cu sublinierea că e imposibil să se albească prin intermediul surplusului de bani inițiativele păguboase ale politicienilor. E simplist să spui că rezolvi toate problemele doar dacă umbli la dobânzi sau reprimi cererea agregată, așa cum susțin monetariștii.

Haideți să vedem ce se întâmplă în forma de globalizare promovată în ultimii 25 de ani? Se reprimă competiția, în loc de 10.000 de agenți economici mici sau mijlocii rămân 100 mari și în acest mod birocraților le e mai ușor să administreze și să colecteze taxe, resurse pe care apoi să le direcționeze centralizat.
Rezultă economii cu bugetul la centru, unde există proprietate privată și piețe, dar al căror rol se estompează pe măsură ce lichiditatea se strânge la stat și corporații, ca în regimurile fasciste.

Sigur că astfel se întâmplă în economiile pe picior de război, resursele se concentrează, consumul se restricționează și saltul tehnologic apare instantaneu când e nevoie de el.

Chestiunea ce merită analizată aici este însă ce salt de tehnologie a avut loc în forma recentă de globalizare? Poate primi această denumire “revoluția” din IT? Adică, se poate ieși din criză cu gadget-uri, jocuri și divertisment? Dacă nu, înseamnă că, degeaba se concentrează resursele și li se iau ele piețelor și mâinii invizibile, de către mâna politizată corporatist-birocratică.

E clar că e necesară trecerea la o altă formă de globalizare, dar în paralel merită să ne întrebăm care mai e rolul marketingul din moment ce după limitarea drastică a concurenței nu mai are vreo utilitate? Nu acesta vinde marfa, comercializarea produselor nu mai are legătură cu performanța, ci cu interesele și presiunile politice, ceea ce ne face să observăm existența unor practici aproape identice de marketing. Ce nevoie e de el?

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