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Deficitul extern al statului feudal

Deficitul extern se va situa la peste 4% din PIB la sfârşitul acestui an şi nu-s multe ţări UE în această situaţie. Ba chiar, dintre puţinii aflaţi într-o asemenea secvenţă, unii vor părăsi Uniunea.

Comenteaza

Problema este însă că soldul extern poate fi interpretat ca o balanţă curentă a bunurilor, serviciilor, veniturilor şi transferurilor, dar şi a soldului sectoarelor guvernamental şi neguvernamental, a diferenţei dintre economisiri şi investiţii, cu precizarea că deficitul de cont curent e considerat și o formă amânată de inflaţie.

Iar dacă luăm în calcul că din procentul de patru şi ceva din PIB trei sferturi e deficitul bugetar, ce se va plasa la minimum 3%, se poate spune - pe drept cuvânt - că vorbim de deficitul extern al statului. Sectorul neguvernamental nu consumă în exces ca să genereze un sold negativ finanţat din împrumuturi interne şi externe, fiindcă salariile ce au produs dezechilibrul sunt cele ale bugetarilor, mai precis ale celor din administraţia locală, tributari baronilor.

La momentul oportun am avertizat în legătură cu invertirea efectului Balassa - Samuelson şi am precizat, mai mult în glumă, că toţi lucrătorii vor merge să se angajeze la stat în aceste condiții. Iată însă că nu-i deloc glumit când companiile se derentabilizează serios ca să-i poată ține. Plătesc și impozite corespunzătoare susținerii lefurilor majorate ale oamenilor de încredere ai baronilor locali – ca un exemplu la întâmplare să nu uităm că premierul Tudose a reimpus supracciza la carburanți! -, dar asigură și propriilor salariați un nivel de remunerare cu ajutorul căruia să evite migrația și greve similare celor de la metrou, ținând cont inclusiv de avansul salariului minim. De unde atâtea rezerve de productivitate?!

Am ajuns cu acest prilej la deficit ca o formă amânată de inflație, cu mențiunea că atunci când spun inflaţie mă refer la ea ca deficit de productivitate.

Pentru a se evita dezechilibrele e necesar ca sporurilor de productivitate să fie mai mari decât majorarea salariilor și aprecierea monedei locale. Cursul de referință mai mult stagnează decât se depreciază, deficitul de cont curent se umflă, inflația de bază bate pasul pe loc, dar se acumulează tensiuni ce vor fi soluționate prin intermediul taxării, așa cum se prefigurează în anul care vine.

Ajungem în acest mod la deficit explicat pe relația economisiri investiții. Cu un mediu economic ostil românii n-au ce să pună deoparte ca să-și plaseze apoi banii pe piața de capital, aşa cum fac americanii, și atungi recurg la banii străinilor, inclusiv la fondurile europene, dar bineînțeles asta când o parte a spectrului politic e decis să le capaciteze, în măsura în care le consideră utile pentru feudalii români. Vorbesc, desigur,  de baronii locali, niște urmași și promotori ai sloganului "Nu ne vindem țara", dar care, de fapt, nu se referă în sensul strict la acest lucru, ci la neparticiparea la diviziunea europeană a muncii, după ce mai întâi nu este  realizată cea de la noi. 

Iar când diviziunea muncii nu funcționează toată lumea vorbește de reprimarea consumului tuturor celor care n-au beneficiat de salarii crescute, ceea ce înseamnă că se gestionează cererea agregată în loc să se stimuleze oferta internă. Adică, dacă în piețele agroalimentare mărfurile sunt mai ieftine decât la hipermarket e limpede că dependenții de importuri se găsesc în această stare și pentru că nu-s integrați producătorii care vând din fața porții. Oare e chiar atât de greu de făcut un lanț de distribuție? Chiar la nimic să nu ne folosească baronii?!

Citeste mai mult despre:
Balassa-Samuelson, deficit, inflaţie, productivitate,
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