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În primele 10 luni din 2018, cheltuielile de capital sunt la maximul ultimilor cinci ani

In orice economie care se dezvolta pe termen lung, o importanta deosebita o au cheltuielile de capital si cheltuielile cu investitiile intrucat cea mai mare parte a acestora este indreptata spre infrastructura si dezvoltare.

Comenteaza

Cheltuielile de capital reprezinta cheltuielile efectuate din bugetul general consolidate cu lucrari de investitii, achizitii de utilaje si echipamente, pentru cresterea patrimoniului national si dezvoltarea economica. Cheltuielile de investiţii cuprind, conform clasificaţiei bugetare, pe langa cheltuielile de capital (active nefinanciare) si cheltuielile cu proiectele cu finanţare din fonduri externe nerambursabile postaderare, cheltuielile aferente programelor cu finanţare rambursabilă, transferurile de capital şi alte transferuri de natura investiţiilor.

Care este situatia cheltuielilor de capital si a celor cu investitiile?

Cheltuielile de capital in primele zece luni ale anului 2018 au crescut cu aproximativ 74.8% fata de aceeasi perioada a anului anterior, fiind la maximul ultimilor cinci ani in valoare absoluta si in preturi nominale.

Indicatori

Valoare indicator in primele 10 luni ale anului 2018 (preturi curente mld lei, estimare)

% pondere in PIB -2018

% crestere fata de aceeasi perioada a anului anterior

Cheltuieli de investitii

20.5

2.16%

40.1%

Cheltuieli de capital

15.8

1.67%

74.8%

 

Mai mult, coeficientul de elasticitate a cheltuielilor de capital in raport cu cresterea PIB este cu mult peste valoarea unitara, ceea ce inseamna ca ritmul de crestere a cheltuielilor de capital este mai mare fata de ritmul de crestere a PIB.

Pentru a avea o imagine cat mai corecta asupra evolutiei cheltuielilor de capital, vom realiza analiza in preturi curente ale anului 2010, luand in considerare evolutia indicelui preturilor. Astfel, cheltuielile de capital in preturi constante in primele zece luni ale anului 2018 sunt in valoare de 13.31 mld lei fiind, de asemenea, la maximul ultimilor cinci ani iar cresterea fata de aceeasi perioada a anului 2017 este de peste 66.6%. Si in acest caz, coeficientul de elasticitate a cheltuielilor de capital in termeni reali este semnificativ peste unu, ceea ce indica un ritm de crestere a investitiilor din buget peste ritmul de crestere a economiei.

Indicatori

2018-primele 10 luni, estimare

2017-primele 10 luni

2016- primele 10 luni

2015- primele 10 luni

2014- primele 10 luni

Cheltuieli de capital (preturi 2010, mld lei)

13.3

7.99

9.79

8.025

9.27

Cheltuieli de capital (preturi curente, mld lei)

15.8

9.065

11.009

9.177

10.656

Cheltuieli de capital (pondere in PIB)

1.67%

1.06%

1.44%

1.29%

1.59%

In conditiile in care analiza se realizeaza din punctul de vedere al ponderii cheltuielilor de capital in PIB, in primele zece luni ale anului 2018 aceasta pondere a inregistrat valoarea de 1.67%, fiind si din aceasta perspectiva la maximul ultimilor cinci ani, asa cum se observa din tabelul anterior.

Analiza cheltuielilor cu investitiile se poate efectua si prin comparatie cu deficitul bugetar pentru a pune in evidenta utilizarea calitativa a acestuia. Important este ca valoarea cheltuielilor cu investitiile sa nu scada sub nivelul deficitului pentru ca o parte cat mai redusa din resursele imprumutate sa fie dirijate spre acoperirea cheltuielilor neproductive ce reprezinta un consum definitiv de resurse. De asemenea, ponderea cheltuielilor cu investitiile in PIB reprezinta o limita pana la care are loc optimizarea veniturilor si cheltuielilor si se compara cu ponderea deficitului in PIB in aceeasi interpretare cu clauza pentru investitii. Astfel, cheltuielile cu investitiile in primele zece luni ale anului curent reprezinta 98.2% din deficit, fiind foarte aproape de limita calitativa de utilizare a deficitului. Din punct de vedere economic, e mult mai bine sa realizezi investitii consistente in conditii de rentabilitate si sa ai deficit bugetar, decat sa ai excedent si sa nu faci investitii.

Ce trebuie facut?

In primul rand, trebuie imbunatatita calitatea investitiilor publice iar fondurile financiare, indiferent de provenienta, trebuie indreptate catre acele investitii care au un factor mare de multiplicare in economie.
In al doilea rand, trebuie utilizate toate formele de finantare de la fonduri bugetare si fonduri europene, pana la o finantare mixta prin parteneriate publice private.
In al treilea rand, trebuie finalizate lucrarile de infrastructura aflate in derulare (de exemplu, autostrada Sebes - Turda) si demarate lucrarile la cel putin trei obiective de infrastructura, cum ar fi:
- autostrada Bucureşti – Alexandria – Craiova – Drobeta – Turnu Severin – Lugoj;
- autostrada Pitesti - Craiova;
- centura Bucurestiului;
- autostrada Sibiu - Pitesti.

Nu in ultimul rand, trebuie sa devina realitate si primul parteneriat public privat in domeniul infrastructurii si aici ma refer la autostrada Ploiesti-Brasov.
In concluzie, chiar daca cheltuielile cu investitiile incep sa creasca, ritmul de realizare a acestora trebuie accelerat mai ales din perspectiva atragerii de fonduri europene iar efectul de substitutie dintre cheltuielile de capital si cheltuielile din fondurile externe nerambursabile trebuie imbunatatit.

Dan Armeanu este profesor universitar doctor - Facultatea de Finante, Banci si Burse de Valori - ASE Bucuresti. 

 

Citeste mai mult despre:
ASE, cheltuieli de capital, dan armeanu,
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