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La parterul blocurilor bate vântul crizei

Criza declanșată în 2007 a fost una reală, iar noi nu ne-am revenit din ea nici până în ziua de astăzi cu adevărat. Asta cu toate că am fost declarați ieșiți din criză și reintrați pe panta ascendentă a creșterii economice, pe gură, de vreo 4-5 ori până acum.

Comenteaza

Dacă ne uităm pe majoritatea datelor statistice oficiale, s-ar zice că nu stăm rău, ba chiar dimpotrivă. Cele mai pesimiste estimări prognozează că România va avea o creștere economică de peste 4% anul acesta. În primul semestru din 2018, PIB-ul a crescut cu 4,2%. Rata șomajului este de puțin peste 4%.

Potrivit unei analize recente KeysFin, la prima vedere, business-ul românesc e pe plus, consumul e la cote maxime, salariile cresc, "se construieşte la foc continuu", însă în aceeaşi măsură apar şi tot mai multe semnale îngrijorătoare.

Numărul companiilor dizolvate a crescut cu 35% în primele şapte luni din 2018, iar cel al firmelor noi a scăzut cu 13%, semn că apetitul pentru afaceri este în scădere, potrivit unei analize KeysFin. Totodată, blocajul financiar, instabilitatea politică şi accesul tot mai scump la finanţare sunt principalele argumente care fac ca economia românească să funcţioneze precum o maşină cu frâna de mână trasă.

În plus faţă de statisticile privind deschiderea şi dizolvarea firmelor, evoluţia insolvenţelor este văzută de analişti drept un barometru foarte sensibil al situaţiei din economie. Potrivit datelor oficiale, printre cele mai riscante sectoare din economie, din acest punct de vedere, se numără comerţul (2.812 insolvenţe în 2017) şi industria prelucrătoare (1.089).

Astfel, în industria prelucrătoare, plăţile se fac în medie la 150 de zile, iar încasările la 80 de zile, iar în comerţ la 113 zile în cazul plăţii datoriilor şi la 59 de zile în cazul încasării facturilor. "Cine vrea să deschidă o afacere în astfel de domenii trebuie să fie foarte atent la aceste statistici. Trebuie să ai lichidităţi sau surse de finanţare pentru a acoperi astfel de întârzieri de plată. Altfel riscă să intre în blocaj financiar în foarte scurt timp. Microîntreprinderile sunt cele mai vulnerabile din acest punct de vedere", spun analiştii.

Aceste date se confirmă plimbându-te regulat pe străzi în București, și în centru, și în cartere. De la lună la lună constați că magazinele de toate soiurile de la parterul blocurilor, de la haute couture la geamgii, dispar constant și, în cel mai bun caz, sunt înlocuite cu altele, însă există și foarte multe spații goale scoase la vânzare sau disponibile pentru închiriere. Ceea ce înseamnă că nu prea am ieșit din criză. Afacerile, în afară de cele ale corporațiilor, nu reușesc să prindă cheag și să-și stabilizeze un flux constant de numerar care să le permită măcar să supraviețuiască dacă nu să prospere.

Explicația e că recesiunea ne-a lăsat pe toți vulnerabili – firme, consumatori și stat. Consumatorii țin cu dinții de lichiditate, pentru a nu rămâne descoperiți la greu, și se concentrează pe achiziționarea de bunuri de bază, fără de care realmente nu pot trăi, amânând pe termen nedefinit cumpărările mai substanțiale, cum ar fi bunurile de folosință îndelungată, ceea ce provoacă probleme producătorilor și comercianților din acest sector. Tot ceea ce nu e produs de bază e "externalizat" de către consumator. Până și edițiile print ale ziarelor au ajuns un lux.

Să ne amintim cum, în urmă cu două decenii, era bătaie pe ziare și pe închirierea spațiilor comerciale de la parterul blocurilor. Așa că fie vorbim de o criză din care n-am ieșit de fapt, fie de una generalizată și cronicizată, care durează de decenii și se datorează gestionării țării în regim de avarie, ce nu-i altceva decât o moarte lentă.

Citeste mai mult despre:
criză, parter, Romania,
de ultima ora pe ECONOMICA.net
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b365.ro
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