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Execuţia din primul trimestru arată că bugetul este orientat către investiţii

Bugetul de stat reprezinta un program financiar pe termen scurt la nivel macroeconomic, care urmareste indeplinirea obiectivelor economice, sociale, financiare si politice ale statului. Intr-o economie de piata ce functioneaza normal, bugetul nu se rezuma la o simpla lista de venituri si cheltuieli publice ci este un adevarat instrument de politica economica folosit pentru stimularea dezvoltarii.

Comenteaza

Analiza eficientei bugetului se realizeaza atat static cat si in dinamica si in corelatie cu evolutia PIB-ului.

Astfel, in anul 2016, cresterea economica a fost de 4,8% iar veniturile colectate de guvern au scazut cu 9,8%, ceea ce inseamna ca veniturile au scazut cu de doua ori mai mult decat valoarea cu care a crescut PIB-ul. E destul de greu de explicat cum a fost gestionata activitatea economica in 2016 in conditiile in care economia a crescut substantial, cu aproape 5%, iar veniturile bugetului consolidat au scazut cu aproape 10%.
În 2017, cresterea economica a fost de 6,9% iar veniturile bugetului general consolidat au crescut cu aproape de doua ori mai mult decat valoarea cu care a crescut PIB-ul (12,5%), confirmand faptul ca avem o crestere economica care s-a transferat si in venituri. Mai mult, coeficientul de elasticitate a veniturilor in raport cu PIB este aproximativ unitar in 2017 si pune in evidenta faptul ca ritmul de colectare a veniturilor a fost asemanator cu ritmul de crestere a activitatii economice.

In primul trimestru al anului 2018, cresterea veniturilor bugetului general consolidat fata de aceeasi perioada a anului anterior (11,5%) a fost a doua cea mai mare din ultimii 10 ani, doar in 2015 inregistrandu-se un ritm mai mare de crestere mai mare (12,5%).

In primul trimestru al anului 2018, au crescut incasarile din TVA cu 2,2%, din accize cu 2,6% si din impozitele si taxele pe proprietate cu 4,5%. De asemenea, contributiile de asigurari sociale au crescut cu 31,1% cu toate ca a avut loc o scadere a CAS incepand cu 1 ianuarie 2018. Pe langa mutarea contributiilor, cresterea incasarilor din CAS s-a realizat pe baza atat a cresterii salariilor in sectorul public si in cel privat cat si a cresterii numarului de locuri de munca din economie. Astfel, pe langa cresterile salariale din sectorul public, veniturile salariale nete s-au majorat in sectorul concurential (privat) cu 10,8% in termeni nominali si cu 5,9% in termeni reali, ceea ce confirma faptul ca performanta economiei s-a transmis si in veniturile populatiei. Mai mult, in primul trimestru 2018, efectivul de salariati a trecut de borna de 4,9 milioane de salariati, acesta fiind maximul ultimilor 20 de ani. Cresterile de salarii si de locuri de munca au avut un impact pozitiv si pe incasarile din impozitul pe venit, acestea scazand cu 14,9% in conditiile in care impozitul pe venit a scazut de la 1 ianuarie 2018 cu 37,5%, de la 16% la 10%.

De asemenea, veniturile din impozitul pe profit au scazut cu (3,3%) fata de trimestrul întâi din 2017 deoarece, începând cu 1 ianuarie 2018, firmele cu cifra de afaceri mai mică de 1 milion de euro plătesc impozit pe cifra de afaceri de doar 1% în loc de impozit pe profit.
Dar ce trebuie remarcat este faptul ca sumele primite de la UE si prefinantarile aferente cadrului financiar 2014-2020 au crescut cu 44% fata de primul trimestrul al anului 2017 si au dus rata de absorbtie la aproximativ 17%, in conditiile in care media UE este de 18%. Daca vrem sa avem o dezvoltare sanatoasa trebuie sa atragem fonduri europene in acest an si sa le orientam spre investitii.
Cheltuielile bugetului consolidat au crescut cu 22% pe seama cresterii cheltuielilor de personal (18%) si a cheltuielilor de capital (peste 280%). Dar, cheltuielile de personal au crescut pe baza cresterii salariilor din invatamant si sanatate care nu reprezinta un cost pentru buget si economie, ci o investitie pe termen lung in capitalul uman si in potentialul de dezvoltare a tarii.

Cea mai importanta evolutie in bugetul consolidat si cu impact major asupra echilibrului modelului de dezvoltare economica o reprezinta cheltuielile cu investitiile care cuprind cheltuielile de capital si cele eferente programelor de dezvoltare finantate din surse interne si externe. Astfel, cheltuielile cu investitiile in 2018 au fost de trei ori mai mari ca in 2017, ajungand la nivelul de 4,9 mld lei, in timp ce deficitul bugetar a fost de 4,4 mld lei. Aceasta inseamna ca, daca nu am fi facut investitii in primul trimestru al anului curent, am fi avut excedent bugetar. Numai cheltuielile de capital (investitiile din bugetul de stat) au fost de 4 mld lei, de patru ori mai mari ca anul trecut (in primul trimestru 2017 cheltuielile de capital au fost de 1 mld lei), ceea ce reprezinta 92% din deficitul bugetar. Din punct de vedere economic, e mult mai bine sa realizezi investitii consistente si sa ai deficit bugetar, decat sa ai excedent si sa nu faci investitii.

Din punct de vedere al programarii bugetare, intr-adevar veniturile realizate au fost cu 4,5% mai mici fata de cele programate dar in acelasi timp trebuie mentionat ca si cheltuielile realizate au fost mai mici fata de cele programate cu 9,7% si astfel rezulta o diferenta de 4,5 mld lei economie la buget fata de programat.
In concluzie, in primul trimestru, veniturile bugetului consolidat au crescut cu al doilea cel mai mare ritm din ultimii 10 ani, atragerea de fonduri europene a ajuns in media europeana, cheltuielile cu investitiile sunt de trei ori mai mari fata de aceeasi perioada a anului anterior, cheltuielile de capital sunt de patru ori mai mari iar deficitul bugetar e unul sanatos, realizat integral din investitii.

Ce trebuie facut in continuare? Investitiile trebuie prioritizate si realizate pe tot parcursul anului, atragerea de fonduri europene trebuie sa continue iar acestea sa fie dirijate spre investitii in infrastructura, derapajele bugetare, atat pe partea de venituri cat si pe partea de cheltuieli trebuie evitate, activitatea ANAF trebuie imbunatatita iar deficitul bugetar la sfarsitul anului trebuie sa se incadreze in limita de sustenabilitate.

Dan Armeanu este Profesor Universitar Doctor la Facultatea de Finante, Asigurări, Bănci şi Burse de Valori, la ASE Bucureşti

 

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